Having a stocked pantry is a must-have for today. With shortages and rising food costs, It’s essential to stock up your pantry in the best and most cost-effective way you can. Buying in bulk is the number one way to save. I know not everyone is in the position to be able to purchase their goods in bulk. While it may be cheaper overall, not everyone has the extra $30 to just buy a 25 lb bag of flour or a 3 lb jar of honey. The other option is shopping sales. I know it is hard to do because sale prices are what we used to pay normally, but you should really grab what you can when it goes on sale, there is no guarantee it will go on sale again and we will probably never see prepandemic prices. Once corporations know we will pay something, they won’t ever drop the price.
The other thing we are seeing in stores is shrinkflation. Instead of changing the price, companies are changing the size of the packages. So you are getting less product for your money. Check sizing and ingredients. Another thing companies are doing to keep costs down is changing out ingredients for lesser quality ones. If the price has stayed the same on what you are buying really take a look at it to make sure it’s the same.
There are several reasons why there is a lot of chatter about shortages in 2024. It is not just food but across a lot of sectors. This will make prices on almost everything go up. From having the hottest summer on record, extreme droughts in a lot of the world, wildfires, to extreme flooding, lots of countries’ Agriculture was disrupted.
On top of climate-related issues, war still going on in the Ukraine, along with now war in Israel and other parts of the world, exports from those countries have stopped, disrupting the supply chain. Countries have also put export bands on products in order to secure their domestic supply. These reasons and more are going to cause food prices to really go up.
Personally, here in the USA, I don’t think we will completely run out of anything. Will you be able to get the brand you like? Probably not. Will you be able to afford everything you normally get? I honestly don’t think so. Right now there are a lot of products that are already becoming unaffordable.
I put together this list of 10 items that you should stock up on before 2024. This list includes some products because of expected shortages or price hikes while others are a great addition to your pantry to be used as an alternative to things like meat. Check out my post on Food Storage Basics to learn how to store foods in your pantry.
The best prices I have found depend on what you are looking for. If you prefer organic or conventionally grown foods, would rather have food delivered, or like to go in-store, your pricing will vary.
For organic foods, Azure Standard consistently has the lowest bulk prices with the exception of bulk all-purpose flour. (See Costco) I get all my specialty organic flours through them. They also have really good prices on organic raw milk cheese. If you like probiotic yogurt and sour cream, They have really good deals on both. You want to join a drop point to get the best deals. You pay a fraction of the cost for shipping doing it that way.
Big Box Stores
Costco: Costco has organic all-purpose flour about .30¢ less per pound than Azure.. The price might be different where you live so check and see if your local Costco has it in and the price comparison. One way I have found to price check at Costco is to view Instant Cart. I know that the prices in my store are about $2.00 less on average than what they put on Instant Cart. They are also great for checking inventory. They keep a really updated list of what’s in store. You can also find great prices on bulk items here. Conventional and more organic stuff every week.
Sam’s Club: Before we got a Costco close to us, we did a lot of our bulk shopping at Sam’s Club. They are about $2-$3 dollars cheaper on the same brand items you can get at Costco. I think the store brand, Member’s Mark isn’t as high quality as Costco’s Kirkland.
Check out my post on The Basics of Food Storage here.
With everything going on in the world, wheat prices are expected to go way up. In July, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea Grain Initiative, blocking Ukrainian ports, their main way to export goods. On top of that, the USDA’s latest forecast shows a supply contraction among the key exporters based on extreme weather conditions. All this is causing projections of wheat prices to continue to go up. Keeping a stock of flour will allow you to bake your own foods, and thicken soups and sauces, along with other cooking essentials. You save so much cooking from scratch and eat way healthier too. This is a homemade sandwich bread recipe you can make for about $1.34 a loaf and is super easy to make.
Most pasta is made with wheat. When the ingredients price goes up the final product will also go up. you can make your own pasta but it isn’t always the most affordable option. Pasta is made with just flour and eggs. So really your cost of eggs will determine which is the better option for you. I buy pasta in bulk and store it in jars for a quick meal, choosing to use my eggs for other purposes.
Extreme drought in Italy has caused lots of issues for their crops, especially in the region where olives are grown. Just in the last 3 weeks, I have seen Olive Oil go up $4.00 for the 3L jug I get. The Internationational Olive Oil Council released their September report, stating extra virgin olive oil is up 104% from last year. ** Spain’s crop yield this year was also cut in half. This is going to drastically increase the price of Olive Oil in the next year. If you are not an olive oil user, stock up on your choice of oil. Once prices get completely unaffordable, people will begin switching to more affordable oils, decreasing the supply and increasing the price.
Honey is a great item to keep in your pantry. It is an incredible sweetener that never expires. It is also way more nutritious than traditional sugars. Beekeepers reported having higher than normal die-offs last winter starting this year off with fewer bees than normal. One Washington beekeeper said, “…the worst year since the disastrous year of 2005.” This combined with the extreme weather of 2023, be prepared for supply to be low making prices high.
According to the UN Food and Agriculture Division*sugar is up 42% from this time last year. It has gone up 9% in just one month. The price increase stems from concerns over a decrease in global supply for the upcoming 2023/2024 season. This from drier than normal weather in areas like Thailand and India, countries that are big sugar producers.
We have really seen a price increase in the stores. In some places, it has been up several dollars per bag. The supply is also down in the grocery stores and with the holidays coming up, more and more people will be buying sugar, decreasing the supply and increasing the price. Store Sugar in airtight containers. Do not use an oxygen absorber. It will turn your sugar into a brick.
* https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
**https://www.internationaloliveoil.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/IOC-prices-rev-0-1-1.html